USD
Brief:
1.Today's US economic releases, -forecast- US Initial jobless claims -May16- (625k), US Philadelphia Fed index -May- (-18.0) and US Leading indicators -Apr- (0.8%).
2.USD is steady against most currencies today as stocks in Asia and Europe fell, supporting the currency amid figures' indicates economy in Europe and Asia are showing signs of recovering, boosting investors risk appetite.
3.USD dropped to the lowest level versus the euro since January yesterday on signs of stabilizing credit markets spurred speculation that global economy will return to growth soon, increasing demand for the dollar as safe haven.
4.The dollar remained weak against most currencies yesterday and fell to a 8-week low against the yen on speculation Fed will boost purchases of assets to counter the global slump, increasing the supply of the currency.
On the upside:
•Some recovery after recent retreat.
On the downside:
•Further selling pressure on outlook that recession in US and Europe may be stabilizing.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News/statements related to major corporate.
•Other Central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Cross currency strength and weakness. (GBP, EUR, AUD, NZD, CAD and JPY –Main-)
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – AUD/USD –
Long: USD/CAD - USD/CHF - USD/JPY –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/USD – GBP/USD – USD/CAD – USD/CHF -
-According to 11.10GMT price-
JPY
Brief:
1.Tomorrow's Japan economic releases, -forecast- Japan Leading index -Mar- (82.5) and Japan Coincident index -Mar- (89.0).
2.JPY is steady against most currencies today amid stocks fell around the world as investors speculated recent gain was excessive and would decline after Fed cut its forecast for the US economy.
3.JPY rose to a 8-week high versus the dollar and advanced against most currencies yesterday as US stocks retreated, erasing gains in the final hour of trading, as Fed predicted a deeper recession.
On the upside:
•Stocks may retreat as outlook on non-banking sectors' companies earnings remain weak.
On the downside:
•The yen may weaken on speculation Japan's government will offer more stimulus package.
•Stocks may advance on economic data which indicates global economy is recovering.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•US Indexes movement.
•Corporate fiscal report.
•Fed/Treasury members' speech.
•BOJ Members' statements/comments.
•News related to major institution.
•Other central bank member’s statements/comments.
•Economist comments on US/Japan economy, economic releases or sector growth.
Suggested pairs of the day:
Short: GBP/JPY – EUR/JPY – AUD/JPY – USD/JPY -
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY – USD/JPY – AUD/JPY - GBP/JPY
-According to 11.10GMT price-
EUR
Brief:
1.Today's Euro-zone economic releases, -actual- France Services PMI -May- (47.6), France Manufacturing PMI -May- (43.1), Germany Manufacturing PMI -May- (39.1), Germany Services PMI -May- (46.0), Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI -May- (40.5) and Euro-zone Services PMI -May- (44.7).
2.Tomorrow's Euro-zone economic releases, -forecast- Italy Retail sales -Mar- (-0.2%).
3.EUR is little change against most currencies today as stocks in Asian and Europe fell, supporting the dollar, overshadowed reports that showed Europe's manufacturing and service industries contracted at the slowest pace in eight months in May.
4.EUR rose to the highest level since January versus the dollar but fell against the yen yesterday on signs of stabilizing credit markets and on speculation Fed will boost purchases of assets to counter the global slump, increasing supply of the dollar on the market, overshadowed earlier report which showed Spain's economy shrank more than initially estimated in the 1st quarter and unemployment soared toward 20%.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus/fiscal package for Americans.
On the downside:
•Stocks may retreat on selling pressure.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•News related to major corporate.
•ECB Member's statements/comments.
•Cross currency movement. –Main- (USD)
•Other central banks member’s statements/comments.
Suggested pairs of the day: (Light)
Short: EUR/JPY – EUR/CHF – EUR/USD – EUR/AUD –
Possible main pairs are: EUR/JPY - EUR/USD – EUR/AUD -
-According to 11.10GMT price-
Crude oil
Brief:
1.Crude oil fell from a 6-month high today as investors speculated that recent gains was too fast to sustain and as Fed said that US economy may not be recovering as soon as expected, while declining equities dragged energy producer shares lower.
2.Crude oil rose above $62 a barrel for the first time in 6 months yesterday as the dollar fell to near a 4-month low versus the euro and after a government report showed that US inventories declined more than forecast.
3.US Daily fuel demand was down 7.6% from a year earlier, crude oil inventories decreased by 2.1Million barrels last week, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.3Million barrels, and distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.6Miilion barrels.
4.Refineries operated at 81.8% of their maximum capacity last week, down 1.9% from the previous week, and US crude oil imports averaged nearly 8.8Million barrels last week, up 83,000 barrels per day from the previous week.
On the upside:
•Speculation on additional stimulus package.
On the downside:
•Some retreat after recent gains.
To monitor:
•Today's US economic releases.
•Fed/Treasury members' statements/comments.
•US Indexes movement.
•OPEC members' comments/statements.
•USD movement.
•Geopolitical risk.
•Forecast on near term US economic releases and economic growth.
Trade suggestion: (Light)
“Short” Crude oil around high $60 and low $61 (Today's economic releases, US indexes movement, USD movement)
-Exit all positions before market closes-
inquiries
-According to 11.10GMT price-
Time lapse prediction: (according to current situation)
Present (11.10PM) – 14PM GMT:
•USD slightly weakens in early trading session.
•US capital markets slightly recovers early trading session.
•JPY slightly weakens in early trading session.
•EUR slightly strengthens in early trading session.
•Crude oil slightly advances in early trading session.
14PM – 16PM GMT:
•USD slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•US stock markets slightly retreats in mid trading session.
•JPY slightly strengthens in mid trading session.
•EUR slightly retreats in mid trading session.
•Crude oil slightly weakens in mid trading session.
16PM – 21PM GMT:
•USD strengthens in late trading session.
•US capital markets advances in late trading session.
•JPY weakens in late trading session.
•EUR strengthens in late trading session.
•Crude oil advances in late trading session.
Loh Chang Yuen,
Junior Strategist
All rights reserved: Admiral Markets Ltd
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